← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Mon, Jun 8, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 60% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.46 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 18% | 5.33 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under | 37% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 23' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 64' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Iyoha · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Hamburger SV |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Johannes van den Bergh · Holstein Kiel |
| 84' | 🟨 | Julian Pollersbeck · Hamburger SV |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV |
| 89' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jae-sung Lee · Holstein Kiel |
| coach days | 404.00 | 281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1556.70 | 1491.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.46 | -8.97 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.73 |
| league points | 49.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.29 | 9.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |