← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, May 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kempter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 52% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 21% | 4.66 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jacob Rasmussen · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Calogero Rizzuto · Heidenheim |
| 56' | 🟨 | Marnon Busch · Heidenheim |
| 58' | ⚽ | Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Heidenheim |
| 87' | ⚽ | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heidenheim | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Voith-Arena |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 4656.00 | 304.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1532.35 | 1461.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.24 | 5.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.71 |
| league points | 45.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 27.89 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |