← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Thu, May 28, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Hamburger SV win | 33% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| VfB Stuttgart −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.65 |
| Under | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Joel Pohjanpalo · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Holger Badstuber · VfB Stuttgart |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 47' | ⚽ | Wataru Endo · VfB Stuttgart |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 78' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · Hamburger SV |
| 80' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · VfB Stuttgart |
| 88' | 🟨 | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 179.00 | 393.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1572.28 | 1560.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.14 | -39.00 |
| eye test v1 | 1.14 | 0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 4.29 | 4.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.25 | 1.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 26.08 |
| state index | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |