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Erzgebirge AUE 1–3 Darmstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Tue, May 26, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Günsch

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE win36%2.68
Darmstadt win35%2.78
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE +051%1.92
Darmstadt +049%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Florian Krüger · Erzgebirge AUE
13'🟨Jacob Rasmussen · Erzgebirge AUE
19'⚽ (pen)Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
39'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Darmstadt
45'🟨Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt
55'🟨Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE
60'🟨Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE
72'⚽Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt
81'⚽Serdar Dursun · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots17
3On target13
3Corners10
15Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUEDarmstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.480.66
cards avg (last 5)2.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueErzgebirgsstadion
1.20
coach days299.00480.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.403.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.06
dominance (last 5)0.480.55
elo1477.331507.10
elo momentum (last 5)22.6018.96
eye test v10.12-0.23
eye trend v1-0.30-0.25
first sub minute (last 10)56.0055.00
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.321.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.760.76
league points38.0039.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8078.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8052.60
rest days4.003.23
scorer concentration0.270.31
season ppg1.411.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.402.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.8015.20
skill v1-0.690.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age28.6427.64
state index0.300.43
sterile dominance v1-0.78-0.10
threat rate (last 10)0.310.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.31
threat rate (last 5)0.290.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60