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SV Sandhausen 0–0 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 Β· Sat, May 23, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: D. Schlager

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win42%2.29
Regensburg win30%3.20
Draw28%3.46

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg βˆ’0.2551%1.91
SV Sandhausen βˆ’0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.73
Under44%2.18

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Oliver Hein · Regensburg
22'🟨Max Besuschkow · Regensburg
45'🟨Tim Knipping · Regensburg
53'🟨Emanuel Taffertshofer · SV Sandhausen
74'🟨Denis Linsmayer · SV Sandhausen
76'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots7
5On target0
7Corners7
20Fouls15
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.700.69
cards avg (last 5)3.003.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
coach days600.001057.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.607.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.812.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.12
dominance (last 5)0.590.48
elo1429.471449.99
elo momentum (last 5)-39.61-21.65
eye test v1-0.10-0.05
eye trend v10.600.25
first sub minute (last 10)57.6051.50
form points (last 5)2.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.420.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.580.67
league points29.0033.00
league rank15.009.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet15.004.00
matches since win7.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)49.2046.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.21
season ppg1.121.27
shot diff avg (last 5)4.40-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.00
skill v1-0.67-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
squad age27.7327.46
state index-0.94-0.61
sterile dominance v1-0.67-0.55
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.360.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60