← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, May 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 47% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 26% | 3.76 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Nurnberg −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 43' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 63' | ⚽ (og) | Sören Gonther · Nurnberg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · Nurnberg |
| 76' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 82' | 🟨 | Robin Hack · Nurnberg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jacob Rasmussen · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Frey · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 203.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 1.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1440.88 | 1476.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.36 | 11.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.39 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 28.41 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.43 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |