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Greuther Furth 2–2 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, May 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win50%1.95
Draw26%3.64
Greuther Furth win24%4.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV +0.550%1.95
Greuther Furth +0.550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨Jairo Samperio · Hamburger SV
26'🟨Jordan Beyer · Hamburger SV
35'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Greuther Furth
41'⚽Joel Pohjanpalo · Hamburger SV
48'⚽Jeremy Dudziak · Hamburger SV
64'🟨Timo Letschert · Hamburger SV
74'🟨Paul Seguin · Greuther Furth
82'🟨Jamie Leweling · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots11
5On target8
6Corners4
14Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.570.62
cards avg (last 5)2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.00
coach days471.00382.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)2.602.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.732.06
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.11
dominance (last 5)0.550.55
elo1486.441560.96
elo momentum (last 5)-11.21-35.01
eye test v10.520.06
eye trend v1-0.37-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)57.5056.80
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.401.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.710.64
league points36.0044.00
league rank7.003.00
matches since blank10.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)55.0063.80
rest days30.0030.00
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.441.76
shot diff avg (last 5)2.602.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6014.20
skill v10.481.59
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.905.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.00
squad age25.7625.99
state index-0.05-0.03
sterile dominance v10.241.16
threat rate (last 10)0.280.26
threat rate (last 3)0.250.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20