← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Mar 7, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 67% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.70 |
| Regensburg win | 13% | 8.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −1.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.52 |
| Under | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Chima Okoroji · Regensburg |
| 24' | ⚽ | Timo Letschert · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | 🟨 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 40' | ⚽ | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 50' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 66' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Daniel Heuer Fernandes · Hamburger SV |
| 70' | 🟨 | Christoph Moritz · Hamburger SV |
| 71' | 🟨 | Marco Grüttner · Regensburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 311.00 | 980.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1555.25 | 1456.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.62 | -46.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 41.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.54 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 27.86 |
| state index | -0.08 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.93 | -0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |