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Bielefeld 1–0 SV Wehen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Mar 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win59%1.65
Draw25%4.00
SV Wehen win17%5.89

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.7553%1.84
SV Wehen −0.7547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Fabian Kunze · Bielefeld
31'🟨Daniel-Kofi Kyereh · SV Wehen
47'🟨Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
74'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
81'🟨Sebastian Mrowca · SV Wehen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
15Shots7
6On target1
10Corners5
8Fouls14
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldSV Wehen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.650.82
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchücoArena
coach days456.001124.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.08
corner diff avg (last 5)2.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.206.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.363.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.030.07
dominance (last 5)0.620.41
elo1610.971377.84
elo momentum (last 5)37.08-0.14
eye test v10.46-0.79
eye trend v10.53-0.11
first sub minute (last 10)65.3060.30
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.35
keeper form v10.760.71
league points47.0022.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4061.60
possession avg (last 5)55.8035.60
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.310.46
season ppg2.040.96
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.8011.00
skill v10.16-2.43
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)6.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.00
squad age26.8727.63
state index1.15-0.57
sterile dominance v10.06-1.93
threat rate (last 10)0.260.28
threat rate (last 3)0.290.31
threat rate (last 5)0.270.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40