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Greuther Furth 2–0 VfB Stuttgart

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Feb 29, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Siewer

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win58%1.66
Draw24%4.05
Greuther Furth win18%5.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth +154%1.81
VfB Stuttgart +146%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.40

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart
47'🟨Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart
48'⚽Marco Caligiuri · Greuther Furth
50'🟨Maximilian Bauer · Greuther Furth
68'🟨Paul Seguin · Greuther Furth
76'⚽Sebastian Ernst · Greuther Furth
79'🟨Paul Jaeckel · Greuther Furth
89'🟨Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
90'🟨Maximilian Sauer · Greuther Furth

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots18
4On target8
9Corners7
13Fouls13
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGreuther FurthVfB Stuttgart
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.610.59
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
2.00
coach days393.0090.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.843.56
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.02
dominance (last 5)0.580.60
elo1465.421616.88
elo momentum (last 5)0.5634.94
eye test v11.040.97
eye trend v1-0.080.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.4052.80
form points (last 5)7.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.802.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.550.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.690.68
league points32.0044.00
league rank9.002.00
matches since blank8.0010.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0085.40
possession avg (last 5)56.2061.80
rest days7.777.00
scorer concentration0.270.16
season ppg1.391.91
shot diff avg (last 5)4.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)16.8015.80
skill v10.641.64
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.206.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.677.33
sot for avg (last 5)6.406.20
squad age25.7025.04
state index-0.140.92
sterile dominance v10.050.98
threat rate (last 10)0.290.27
threat rate (last 3)0.260.28
threat rate (last 5)0.300.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20