← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Feb 28, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 49% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.58 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 4.03 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Regensburg −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 63' | ⚽ | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 70' | ⚽ | Patrick Schmidt · Dresden |
| 77' | ⚽ | Simon Makienok · Dresden |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jan-Marc Schneider · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Arena Regensburg |
| coach days | 972.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1470.13 | 1379.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.35 | -2.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| league points | 32.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.38 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.06 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.79 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |