← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Feb 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kempter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 49% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.66 |
| Heidenheim win | 24% | 3.97 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Heidenheim −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Darko Todorović · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 54' | 🟨 | David Otto · Heidenheim |
| 77' | ⚽ | Norman Theuerkauf · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 90' | 🟥 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 174.00 | 4557.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1525.34 | 1543.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.16 | -3.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| league points | 33.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.53 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.19 | 26.67 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |