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Karlsruhe 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Feb 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win42%2.31
Draw29%3.30
VfL Osnabruck win29%3.39

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck −0.2551%1.93
Karlsruhe −0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.93
Under49%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
27'🟨Niklas Schmidt · VfL Osnabruck
29'🟥Assan Ceesay · VfL Osnabruck
45'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
56'🟨Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe
81'🟨Burak Camoglu · Karlsruhe
81'🟨Lukas Gugganig · VfL Osnabruck
90'🟨Lukas Grozurek · Karlsruhe
90'⚽Marcos Álvarez · VfL Osnabruck

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
23Shots13
9On target4
6Corners7
13Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheVfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.190.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.540.67
cards avg (last 5)2.403.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
coach days15.00868.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.262.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.480.49
elo1359.331415.42
elo momentum (last 5)-57.93-19.19
eye test v1-0.890.20
eye trend v1-0.39-0.73
first sub minute (last 10)59.8062.40
form points (last 5)0.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.600.78
league points20.0027.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet15.004.00
matches since win6.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)43.0047.80
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.370.25
season ppg0.951.29
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.4012.00
skill v1-1.21-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.405.00
squad age27.0226.01
state index-1.44-0.63
sterile dominance v1-1.10-0.24
threat rate (last 10)0.320.34
threat rate (last 3)0.260.24
threat rate (last 5)0.300.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20