← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Feb 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.81 |
| Under | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 42' | ⚽ | Salih Özcan · Holstein Kiel |
| 48' | 🟨 | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 63' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Iyoha · Holstein Kiel |
| 67' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 77' | 🟨 | Louis Samson · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Iyoha · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 199.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1465.02 | 1515.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.68 | 17.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.65 |
| league points | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 5.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.14 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |