← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Feb 14, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Dresden win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Waldemar Sobota · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 57' | 🟨 | René Klingenburg · Dresden |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ondřej Petrák · Dresden |
| 77' | 🟨 | Rico Benatelli · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Chris Löwe · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 3 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| coach days | 319.00 | 75.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 1.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1441.36 | 1386.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.30 | -19.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 52.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.03 | 27.20 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |