← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Mon, Feb 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 48% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 25% | 3.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 26' | 🟨 | Leo Østigard · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 30' | ⚽ | Salih Özcan · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | ⚽ | Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 55' | 🟨 | Johannes Flum · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 162.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1508.39 | 1448.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.44 | 14.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 9.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.91 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.39 | 27.19 |
| state index | -0.05 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.23 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |