← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Feb 8, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 75% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.80 |
| Karlsruhe win | 8% | 11.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −1.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV −1.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.46 |
| Under | 34% | 2.84 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Beyer · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | ⚽ | Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV |
| 81' | ⚽ | Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 283.00 | 7.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1595.97 | 1364.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.33 | -47.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.60 |
| league points | 37.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.85 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | -1.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.40 | 28.10 |
| state index | 0.69 | -1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |