← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Jan 31, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: G. Winkmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 27% | 3.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 24' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · Bielefeld |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dennis Kempe · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 183.00 | 426.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 2.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1472.84 | 1582.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.59 | -7.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 61.20 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.13 | 26.85 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |