← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Wed, Jan 29, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Karlsruhe win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Karlsruhe +0 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marco Terrazzino · Dresden |
| 43' | 🟨 | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 50' | 🟨 | Patrick Schmidt · Dresden |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sascha Horvath · Dresden |
| 77' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 82' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 59.00 | 911.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1382.12 | 1384.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.30 | -12.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| league points | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 61.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 39.60 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | -2.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 28.74 |
| state index | -1.10 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -1.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |