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FC St. Pauli 1910 3–0 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Dec 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Gräfe

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win42%2.30
FC St. Pauli 1910 win29%3.36
Draw29%3.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.2551%1.93
Bielefeld +0.2549%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.92
Over49%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910
25'⚽Henk Veerman · FC St. Pauli 1910
54'⚽Viktor Gyökeres · FC St. Pauli 1910
60'🟨Luca Zander · FC St. Pauli 1910

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots19
4On target5
5Corners5
10Fouls5
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910Bielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.650.64
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
1.60
coach days264.00385.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.20
corner diff avg (last 5)2.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.005.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.602.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.50
elo1437.411596.24
elo momentum (last 5)-20.7419.01
eye test v1-0.160.13
eye trend v1-0.21-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)58.5062.60
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.730.79
league points18.0034.00
league rank16.001.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2084.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4060.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.34
season ppg1.062.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.80
skill v10.191.47
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.004.00
squad age25.8726.80
state index-0.420.62
sterile dominance v10.211.06
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.60