← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Dec 20, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.20 |
| Dresden win | 19% | 5.05 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Dresden −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.66 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Robin Hack · Nurnberg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Robin Hack · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Dresden |
| 79' | 🟨 | Linus Wahlqvist · Dresden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Nurnberg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Dresden |
| 86' | 🟨 | Robin Hack · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Felix Lohkemper · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 49.00 | 19.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1437.89 | 1392.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.06 | -18.43 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.66 |
| league points | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.20 | 25.73 |
| state index | -1.23 | -0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.40 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |