← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Dec 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Rohde
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck win | 48% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
| Dresden win | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| VfL Osnabruck −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 35' | 🟨 | Patrick Ebert · Dresden |
| 41' | ⚽ | Moritz Heyer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 54' | ⚽ | Niklas Schmidt · VfL Osnabruck |
| 69' | 🟨 | René Klingenburg · Dresden |
| 78' | ⚽ | Bashkim Ajdini · VfL Osnabruck |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| coach days | 805.00 | 14.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1434.61 | 1405.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.26 | -11.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.99 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 23.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 25.28 |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.07 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |