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Bielefeld 2–2 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Dec 6, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win58%1.67
Draw23%4.33
Karlsruhe win18%5.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld −0.7552%1.85
Karlsruhe −0.7548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Marc Lorenz · Karlsruhe
37'🟨Damian Roßbach · Karlsruhe
42'🟨Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe
66'🟨Marco Thiede · Karlsruhe
81'⚽ (pen)Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
89'🟨Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld
90'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
90'⚽Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
23Shots8
4On target3
10Corners7
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBielefeldKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.450.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSchücoArena
coach days370.00857.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.240.11
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.721.75
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.53
elo1602.081411.07
elo momentum (last 5)39.0818.69
eye test v10.240.60
eye trend v1-0.220.05
first sub minute (last 10)61.8065.60
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.731.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.800.70
league points32.0019.00
league rank1.0011.00
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.009.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)52.8047.60
rest days5.217.00
scorer concentration0.360.38
season ppg2.131.27
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.603.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.4018.20
skill v10.74-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.605.80
squad age26.8328.87
state index0.75-0.16
sterile dominance v10.64-1.37
threat rate (last 10)0.220.39
threat rate (last 3)0.190.36
threat rate (last 5)0.210.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80