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SV Sandhausen 2–1 VfB Stuttgart

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Dec 1, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart win47%2.06
Draw27%3.60
SV Sandhausen win26%3.83

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfB Stuttgart +0.2554%1.77
SV Sandhausen +0.2546%2.15

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.83
Under47%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · SV Sandhausen
24'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · SV Sandhausen
45'🟨Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart
47'🟨Holger Badstuber · VfB Stuttgart
52'🟨Aleksandr Zhirov · SV Sandhausen
59'🟨Nathaniel Phillips · VfB Stuttgart
75'🟨Leart Paqarada · SV Sandhausen
81'🟨Ivan Paurević · SV Sandhausen
88'🟨Tim Kister · SV Sandhausen
89'⚽ (pen)Silas · VfB Stuttgart
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots24
5On target6
6Corners15
13Fouls10
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenVfB Stuttgart
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.260.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.500.75
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
Aziz Bouhaddouz · SV Sandhausen
2.80
coach days426.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.10
corner diff avg (last 5)1.804.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.632.87
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.15
dominance (last 5)0.640.62
elo1466.641589.08
elo momentum (last 5)4.87-32.76
eye test v1-0.150.51
eye trend v10.28-0.01
first sub minute (last 10)64.6049.60
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.690.60
league points18.0026.00
league rank11.003.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0085.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2064.80
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration0.460.23
season ppg1.291.86
shot diff avg (last 5)6.806.80
shots for avg (last 5)16.4017.00
skill v1-0.731.83
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.804.80
squad age27.9025.88
state index0.180.13
sterile dominance v1-1.140.98
threat rate (last 10)0.360.28
threat rate (last 3)0.410.28
threat rate (last 5)0.350.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40