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Bochum 2–0 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Nov 30, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win54%1.81
Draw24%4.00
Erzgebirge AUE win22%4.41

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE −0.7552%1.85
Bochum −0.7548%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE
32'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
61'⚽Anthony Losilla · Bochum
71'🟨Danilo Soares · Bochum
72'🟨Tom Baumgart · Erzgebirge AUE
81'🟨Philipp Zulechner · Erzgebirge AUE
85'🟨Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE
85'🟥Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE
90'⚽ (og)Louis Samson · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots11
4On target0
2Corners2
13Fouls17
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.56
cards avg (last 5)2.402.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days90.00121.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)8.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.131.65
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.460.39
elo1467.351483.42
elo momentum (last 5)0.6412.26
eye test v10.27-0.11
eye trend v1-0.15-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)65.4067.60
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.700.66
league points14.0023.00
league rank16.004.00
matches since blank11.003.00
matches since clean sheet15.008.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.0075.00
possession avg (last 5)52.4043.80
rest days7.777.77
scorer concentration0.260.22
season ppg1.001.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-7.20
shots for avg (last 5)13.809.60
skill v10.17-0.61
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.20
squad age27.8028.12
state index-0.11-0.12
sterile dominance v10.05-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.290.30
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60