← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Nov 29, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 43% | 2.29 |
| Regensburg win | 31% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.74 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Regensburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand