← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Nov 23, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 73% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.75 |
| Dresden win | 9% | 11.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Dresden −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.57 |
| Under | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 47' | ⚽ | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 49' | 🟨 | Christoph Moritz · Hamburger SV |
| 54' | 🟨 | Niklas Kreuzer · Dresden |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jannis Nikolaou · Dresden |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | David Kinsombi · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 206.00 | 295.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1600.62 | 1418.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.49 | -35.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 26.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.61 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.95 | 26.80 |
| state index | 0.82 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |