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Bochum 1–1 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Nov 22, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Kempkes

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win46%2.09
Draw27%3.65
VfL Osnabruck win27%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum −0.2554%1.81
VfL Osnabruck −0.2546%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.66
Under42%2.31

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Danny Blum · Bochum
43'🟨Etienne Amenyido · VfL Osnabruck
45'⚽ (pen)Niklas Schmidt · VfL Osnabruck
53'🟨Sven Köhler · VfL Osnabruck
76'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots22
7On target7
4Corners7
19Fouls8
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumVfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.590.47
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days82.00782.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.20-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)8.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.603.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.322.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.430.40
elo1471.071395.27
elo momentum (last 5)18.3417.60
eye test v10.01-0.34
eye trend v1-0.530.70
first sub minute (last 10)60.5059.10
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.941.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.660.77
league points13.0016.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank10.002.00
matches since clean sheet14.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.6067.00
possession avg (last 5)50.4036.20
rest days14.0013.23
scorer concentration0.280.38
season ppg1.001.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.0011.60
skill v10.09-1.94
sot against avg (last 5)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.00
squad age27.1625.36
state index-0.00-0.34
sterile dominance v10.16-1.78
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.38
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40