← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Nov 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 46% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.61 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 27% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟥 | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 32' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
| 43' | ⚽ | Janni Serra · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gideon Jung · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ | Timo Letschert · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 69.00 | 192.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1494.41 | 1601.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.11 | 18.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 69.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |