← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Nov 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 71% | 1.34 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.66 |
| Dresden win | 11% | 9.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −1.25 | 56% | 1.72 |
| Dresden −1.25 | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.44 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (og) | Brian Hamalainen · VfB Stuttgart |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alexander Jeremejeff · Dresden |
| 38' | ⚽ | Santiago Ascacíbar · VfB Stuttgart |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Phillips · VfB Stuttgart |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 63' | 🟨 | Pascal Stenzel · VfB Stuttgart |
| 76' | 🟨 | René Klingenburg · Dresden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 84' | ⚽ | Silas · VfB Stuttgart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfB Stuttgart | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Mercedes-Benz-Arena |
| coach days | 125.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1590.16 | 1417.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.72 | -42.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 55.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| league points | 20.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 8.06 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | 0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.51 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.09 | -1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.91 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |