← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Nov 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 42% | 2.30 |
| Heidenheim win | 30% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.89 |
| Under | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 26' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 29' | 🟨 | Patrick Schmidt · Heidenheim |
| 34' | 🟨 | Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim |
| 49' | 🟨 | Oliver Hüsing · Heidenheim |
| 54' | ⚽ | Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 80' | 🟨 | Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 88' | ⚽ | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
| 89' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maurice Multhaup · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 93.00 | 4445.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1472.12 | 1528.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.42 | -6.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| league points | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 7.81 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 29.12 | 26.22 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |