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Erzgebirge AUE 1–1 Heidenheim

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Nov 2, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Erzgebirge AUE win42%2.30
Heidenheim win30%3.23
Draw28%3.45

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim −0.2551%1.93
Erzgebirge AUE −0.2549%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over51%1.89
Under49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
26'🟨Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
29'🟨Patrick Schmidt · Heidenheim
34'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
49'🟨Oliver Hüsing · Heidenheim
54'⚽Philipp Riese · Erzgebirge AUE
80'🟨Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE
88'⚽Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim
89'🟨Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE
90'🟨Maurice Multhaup · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots13
2On target5
4Corners4
16Fouls19
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricErzgebirge AUEHeidenheim
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.480.62
cards avg (last 5)2.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueErzgebirgsstadion
coach days93.004445.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.08
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.403.80
corners against avg (last 5)7.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.09
dominance (last 5)0.460.49
elo1472.121528.94
elo momentum (last 5)7.42-6.14
eye test v10.02-0.33
eye trend v1-0.34-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)65.7060.20
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.580.95
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.620.71
league points18.0016.00
league rank5.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.2083.60
possession avg (last 5)44.2058.80
rest days7.815.98
scorer concentration0.210.36
season ppg1.641.45
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)10.2012.20
skill v1-0.361.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age29.1226.22
state index-0.030.05
sterile dominance v1-0.321.03
threat rate (last 10)0.320.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20