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Hannover 1–1 SV Sandhausen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 Β· Fri, Nov 1, 05:30 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win49%1.98
Draw27%3.50
SV Sandhausen win24%4.21

across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen βˆ’0.550%1.93
Hannover βˆ’0.550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under52%1.93
Over48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover
40'🟨Marcel Franke · Hannover
62'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · SV Sandhausen
72'🟨Edgar Prib · Hannover
87'🟨Marvin Bakalorz · Hannover

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
15Shots17
1On target6
0Corners7
15Fouls9
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverSV Sandhausen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.640.55
cards avg (last 5)3.602.20
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueHDI-Arena
coach days0.00396.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.03
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.042.83
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.10
dominance (last 5)0.570.61
elo1499.741450.07
elo momentum (last 5)-2.64-28.58
eye test v10.19-0.00
eye trend v10.60-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)52.9066.20
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.710.75
league points13.0013.00
league rank12.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win2.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)59.8050.00
rest days6.273.92
scorer concentration0.400.44
season ppg1.181.18
shot diff avg (last 5)3.205.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.4017.20
skill v10.88-0.55
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.20
squad age26.4227.80
state index-0.19-0.56
sterile dominance v10.63-0.98
threat rate (last 10)0.240.31
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.34
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.80