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SV Sandhausen 0–0 SV Wehen

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Mon, Oct 28, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win51%1.92
Draw26%3.68
SV Wehen win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen −0.550%1.93
SV Wehen −0.550%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.78
Under46%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Sebastian Mrowca · SV Wehen
43'🟨Ivan Paurević · SV Sandhausen
63'🟨Ivan Paurević · SV Sandhausen
63'🟥Ivan Paurević · SV Sandhausen
90'🟨Niklas Dams · SV Wehen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots5
1On target1
3Corners5
10Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenSV Wehen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.550.58
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
coach days392.00999.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.030.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.691.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.590.45
elo1454.111365.41
elo momentum (last 5)-36.4020.32
eye test v10.41-0.32
eye trend v1-0.060.02
first sub minute (last 10)67.0040.90
form points (last 5)2.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.06
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.740.73
league points12.008.00
league rank14.0018.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win5.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4063.20
possession avg (last 5)51.6029.80
rest days9.359.35
scorer concentration0.440.62
season ppg1.200.80
shot diff avg (last 5)4.80-5.00
shots for avg (last 5)18.4010.00
skill v1-0.36-2.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
squad age27.7826.52
state index-0.49-0.34
sterile dominance v1-1.02-2.56
threat rate (last 10)0.340.37
threat rate (last 3)0.350.39
threat rate (last 5)0.370.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00