← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Oct 26, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 1.98 |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 26% | 3.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 24' | ⚽ | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 33' | ⚽ | Nicolás González · VfB Stuttgart |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 49' | 🟨 | Marc-Oliver Kempf · VfB Stuttgart |
| 56' | ⚽ (og) | Gonzalo Castro · Hamburger SV |
| 63' | ⚽ | Silas · VfB Stuttgart |
| 66' | 🟨 | Philipp Förster · VfB Stuttgart |
| 67' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Castro · VfB Stuttgart |
| 74' | 🟨 | Josha Vagnoman · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 90' | ⚽ | Adrian Fein · Hamburger SV |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 178.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1590.28 | 1606.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.65 | -8.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.68 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 66.00 |
| rest days | 4.69 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 24.65 | 25.15 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |