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Bochum 3–3 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Oct 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win46%2.10
Draw27%3.60
Karlsruhe win27%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum −0.2554%1.79
Karlsruhe −0.2546%2.11

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.61
Under41%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
10'⚽Saulo Decarli · Bochum
12'🟨Danny Blum · Bochum
16'🟨Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
16'🟨Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
16'🟥Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
21'⚽Kyoung-Rok Choi · Karlsruhe
29'⚽ (pen)Danny Blum · Bochum
31'⚽Cristian Gamboa · Bochum
40'🟨Cristian Gamboa · Bochum
52'🟨Damian Roßbach · Karlsruhe
67'🟨Manuel Stiefler · Karlsruhe
90'⚽Anton Fink · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score2
19Shots18
7On target6
5Corners7
14Fouls11
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.24
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
box share (last 5)0.530.66
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days49.00810.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.07
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.806.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.672.31
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.500.43
elo1466.701388.61
elo momentum (last 5)9.008.98
eye test v10.36-0.43
eye trend v10.00-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)51.1068.70
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.660.68
league points8.0012.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank6.004.00
matches since clean sheet10.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2065.60
possession avg (last 5)45.6037.60
rest days14.0015.79
scorer concentration0.420.50
season ppg0.891.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6012.40
skill v1-0.90-2.02
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index-0.07-0.45
sterile dominance v1-1.06-2.19
threat rate (last 10)0.280.38
threat rate (last 3)0.270.42
threat rate (last 5)0.320.38
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00