← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Oct 20, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Kempkes
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| VfB Stuttgart win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.41 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| VfB Stuttgart −1 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 69% | 1.39 |
| Under | 31% | 3.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand