← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Oct 18, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Schlager
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 40% | 2.43 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 51' | ⚽ | Michael Frey · Nurnberg |
| 61' | 🟥 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 78' | ⚽ | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martin Männel · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florian Krüger · Erzgebirge AUE |
| coach days | 78.00 | 259.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 4.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1471.16 | 1508.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.03 | 16.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.90 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.54 |
| league points | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 13.23 | 12.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 19.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 28.67 | 25.95 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -2.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |