← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Oct 6, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 57% | 1.68 |
| Regensburg win | 22% | 4.34 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Regensburg −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under | 30% | 3.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Makana Baku · Holstein Kiel |
| 28' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 87' | ⚽ | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 35.00 | 827.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1490.31 | 1472.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.56 | -13.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.00 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.68 |
| league points | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 67.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.95 | 26.95 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -1.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |