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SV Sandhausen 2–2 Erzgebirge AUE

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Oct 5, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: C. Günsch

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen win45%2.18
Erzgebirge AUE win28%3.40
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen −0.2551%1.89
Erzgebirge AUE −0.2549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.80
Under46%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (og)Aleksandr Zhirov · Erzgebirge AUE
16'⚽Aziz Bouhaddouz · SV Sandhausen
26'⚽Kevin Behrens · SV Sandhausen
37'🟨Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE
40'🟨Gerrit Nauber · SV Sandhausen
45'🟨Julius Biada · SV Sandhausen
59'🟨Marko Mihojević · Erzgebirge AUE
71'🟨Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE
77'⚽ (pen)Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
21Shots12
9On target5
13Corners6
10Fouls17
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenErzgebirge AUE
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
box share (last 5)0.670.51
cards avg (last 5)1.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
2.60
coach days369.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)7.006.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.42
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.55
elo1463.301469.63
elo momentum (last 5)1.8817.32
eye test v10.420.19
eye trend v10.14-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)65.9060.40
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.760.69
league points11.0014.00
league rank10.004.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0074.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4038.20
rest days5.985.98
scorer concentration0.430.27
season ppg1.381.75
shot diff avg (last 5)1.603.60
shots for avg (last 5)17.2014.80
skill v1-0.01-1.01
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age27.0228.41
state index-0.10-0.03
sterile dominance v1-0.79-1.91
threat rate (last 10)0.340.33
threat rate (last 3)0.390.38
threat rate (last 5)0.350.40
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80