← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Sep 29, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 41% | 2.34 |
| Dresden win | 32% | 3.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 39' | ⚽ | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 54' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 64' | 🟨 | Barış Atik · Dresden |
| 66' | 🟨 | Marco Hartmann · Dresden |
| 71' | ⚽ | Pascal Testroet · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabian Kalig · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.63 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 59.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1454.40 | 1469.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.08 | 22.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.60 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.88 | 1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.55 | 24.72 |
| state index | -0.23 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.75 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |