← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 40% | 2.41 |
| Heidenheim win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Timo Beermann · Heidenheim |
| 21' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 42' | 🟨 | Manuel Stiefler · Karlsruhe |
| 53' | ⚽ | Marc Schnatterer · Heidenheim |
| 66' | 🟨 | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dirk Carlson · Karlsruhe |
| 85' | 🟨 | Denis Thomalla · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Wildparkstadion |
| coach days | 788.00 | 4410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1381.88 | 1541.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.29 | -11.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | 0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.70 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.77 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.65 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 27.25 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.97 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |