← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Sep 28, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Welz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 54% | 1.79 |
| Regensburg win | 23% | 4.20 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.58 |
| Under | 40% | 2.47 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 29' | ⚽ | Sebastian Stolze · Regensburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Sebastian Nachreiner · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | ⚽ | Aaron Hunt · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | 🟨 | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV |
| 85' | ⚽ | Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 23 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Arena Regensburg |
| coach days | 819.00 | 150.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1471.05 | 1583.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.26 | 19.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 7.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.52 | 1.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 26.96 | 25.37 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | 0.88 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |