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Dresden 2–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Sep 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kempter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden win39%2.44
Regensburg win34%2.81
Draw26%3.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg −0.2555%1.79
Dresden −0.2545%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.50
Under36%2.68

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Jann George · Regensburg
38'🟨Max Besuschkow · Regensburg
55'⚽Moussa Koné · Dresden
63'🟨Dženis Burnić · Dresden
75'🟨Marcel Correia · Regensburg
80'🟨Julian-Maurice Derstroff · Regensburg
88'⚽Florian Ballas · Dresden

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots17
7On target3
4Corners5
18Fouls17
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDresdenRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.620.72
cards avg (last 5)2.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRudolf-Harbig-Stadion
coach days233.00813.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.00-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.007.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.091.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.37
elo1460.201479.89
elo momentum (last 5)-2.83-13.85
eye test v10.450.07
eye trend v10.350.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.9062.90
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.35
keeper form v10.590.71
league points6.007.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4063.20
possession avg (last 5)60.8041.00
rest days7.008.02
scorer concentration0.330.30
season ppg1.001.17
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.40-6.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.20
skill v11.39-2.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.005.00
state index-0.19-0.23
sterile dominance v11.12-1.43
threat rate (last 10)0.220.32
threat rate (last 3)0.200.36
threat rate (last 5)0.210.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40