← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Sep 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kempter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 39% | 2.44 |
| Regensburg win | 34% | 2.81 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −0.25 | 55% | 1.79 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.50 |
| Under | 36% | 2.68 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Jann George · Regensburg |
| 38' | 🟨 | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 55' | ⚽ | Moussa Koné · Dresden |
| 63' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Dresden |
| 75' | 🟨 | Marcel Correia · Regensburg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Julian-Maurice Derstroff · Regensburg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Florian Ballas · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 233.00 | 813.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1460.20 | 1479.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | -13.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 63.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.19 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.12 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |