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SV Wehen 2–5 Bielefeld

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Sep 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: P. Alt

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld win52%1.87
SV Wehen win24%4.20
Draw24%4.11

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bielefeld +0.552%1.88
SV Wehen +0.548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over64%1.50
Under36%2.70

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
20'⚽Cebio Soukou · Bielefeld
24'🟨Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
34'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
43'⚽Jóan Edmundsson · Bielefeld
52'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Bielefeld
54'🟨Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
56'⚽Manuel Schäffler · SV Wehen
58'🟨Manuel Prietl · Bielefeld
70'🟨Stefan Aigner · SV Wehen
73'⚽Fabian Klos · Bielefeld
79'🟥Benedikt Röcker · SV Wehen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
11Shots10
6On target8
4Corners2
13Fouls11
2Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV WehenBielefeld
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.680.55
cards avg (last 5)2.401.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBRITA-Arena
coach days962.00294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.20
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.402.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.60
corners volatility (last 10)—2.92
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.10
dominance (last 5)0.480.50
elo1339.781557.17
elo momentum (last 5)-37.3438.89
eye test v10.000.45
eye trend v1-0.27-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)42.1756.30
form points (last 5)1.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)3.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.45
keeper form v10.550.77
league points1.0012.00
league rank18.003.00
matches since blank1.0020.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4081.60
possession avg (last 5)40.0056.80
rest days7.777.00
scorer concentration0.430.30
season ppg0.172.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.6013.80
skill v1-1.660.93
sot against avg (last 5)7.205.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.00
squad age26.0627.41
state index-1.550.71
sterile dominance v1-1.930.64
threat rate (last 10)0.360.26
threat rate (last 3)0.330.23
threat rate (last 5)0.370.24
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.20