← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Sep 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Siewer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 36% | 2.67 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 36% | 2.71 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.44 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| VfL Osnabruck +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.92 |
| Under | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Joost van Aken · VfL Osnabruck |
| 34' | 🟨 | Kevin Wolze · VfL Osnabruck |
| 40' | ⚽ | Tom Baumgart · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 59' | 🟨 | Marcos Álvarez · VfL Osnabruck |
| 61' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 69' | 🟨 | Ulrich Taffertshofer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 71' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 75' | 🟨 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 75' | 🟥 | Calogero Rizzuto · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 45.00 | 714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1457.99 | 1399.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.47 | 36.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.01 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.32 | 26.28 |
| state index | -0.02 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |