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Heidenheim 3–0 Holstein Kiel

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sat, Sep 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win40%2.45
Holstein Kiel win34%2.87
Draw25%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim +053%1.83
Holstein Kiel +047%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.42
Under33%2.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Robert Leipertz · Heidenheim
29'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
45'🟨Konstantin Kerschbaumer · Heidenheim
55'⚽Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim
83'🟨Jonas Meffert · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots14
6On target1
5Corners8
12Fouls11
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimHolstein Kiel
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.660.61
cards avg (last 5)1.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days4396.0013.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.802.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.007.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.913.05
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.10
dominance (last 5)0.400.54
elo1521.881494.61
elo momentum (last 5)-21.30-24.19
eye test v10.080.25
eye trend v1-0.760.37
first sub minute (last 10)59.1046.10
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.05
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.650.65
league points5.005.00
league rank14.0013.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet10.006.00
matches since win4.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0081.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0061.60
rest days14.7712.98
scorer concentration0.330.60
season ppg1.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.602.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.6017.60
skill v10.071.28
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)6.003.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.20
state index-0.37-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.160.55
threat rate (last 10)0.300.28
threat rate (last 3)0.230.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.20