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VfL Osnabruck 3–0 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Sep 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck win36%2.71
Karlsruhe win35%2.78
Draw29%3.30

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
VfL Osnabruck +051%1.93
Karlsruhe +049%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.89
Under48%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Marcos Álvarez · VfL Osnabruck
23'🟨Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
29'🟨Marc Lorenz · Karlsruhe
48'⚽ (pen)Marcos Álvarez · VfL Osnabruck
53'🟨Bryan Henning · VfL Osnabruck
54'🟨Kevin Wolze · VfL Osnabruck
55'🟨Marvin Pourié · Karlsruhe
80'⚽Joost van Aken · VfL Osnabruck

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
20Shots10
7On target3
8Corners6
19Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricVfL OsnabruckKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)—0.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.450.72
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBremer Brücke
coach days700.00761.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.17
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.600.00
corners against avg (last 5)8.005.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.582.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.11
dominance (last 5)0.510.51
elo1384.881379.63
elo momentum (last 5)36.639.26
eye test v1-0.230.30
eye trend v1—0.30
first sub minute (last 10)63.5055.10
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.27
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.760.59
league points6.006.00
league rank9.0010.00
matches since blank0.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.7568.40
possession avg (last 5)45.2541.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.50
season ppg1.501.50
shot diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.4016.20
skill v1-0.44-1.49
sot against avg (last 5)4.506.40
sot for avg (last 10)—4.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.754.80
squad age25.5928.19
state index-0.02-0.35
sterile dominance v1-0.69-1.97
threat rate (last 10)—0.33
threat rate (last 3)0.320.44
threat rate (last 5)0.290.39
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20