← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Fri, Aug 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 45% | 2.15 |
| Heidenheim win | 28% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.55 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.74 |
| Under | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Arne Feick · Heidenheim |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 48' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 63' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 70' | ⚽ | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 77' | 🟨 | Timo Beermann · Heidenheim |
| 82' | ⚽ | Niklas Dorsch · Heidenheim |
| 84' | ⚽ | Stefan Schimmer · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 210.00 | 4381.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.42 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1491.99 | 1520.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.02 | -10.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | 0.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |