← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Aug 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Storks
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 47% | 2.07 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 |
| Karlsruhe win | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Hamburger SV +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV |
| 34' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe |
| 54' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Hamburger SV |
| 59' | 🟨 | Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe |
| 67' | ⚽ | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 76' | ⚽ | Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe |
| 82' | 🟨 | Adrian Fein · Hamburger SV |
| 88' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Wildparkstadion |
| coach days | 754.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 6.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.76 | 3.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1389.64 | 1569.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.63 | 40.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 1.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.25 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 24.35 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.45 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |