⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Karlsruhe 2–4 Hamburger SV

← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Aug 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win47%2.07
Draw28%3.52
Karlsruhe win26%3.75

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +0.553%1.83
Hamburger SV +0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over52%1.85
Under48%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'⚽ (pen)Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV
30'🟨Lukas Hinterseer · Hamburger SV
34'⚽Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
44'🟨Lukas Fröde · Karlsruhe
54'🟨Jan Gyamerah · Hamburger SV
59'🟨Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe
67'⚽Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV
76'⚽Daniel Gordon · Karlsruhe
82'🟨Adrian Fein · Hamburger SV
88'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
90'⚽

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
21Shots16
7On target7
5Corners2
10Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheHamburger SV
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.640.64
cards avg (last 5)1.000.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueWildparkstadion
Jairo Samperio
· Hamburger SV
coach days754.00116.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.606.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.209.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.763.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.06
dominance (last 5)0.470.64
elo1389.641569.71
elo momentum (last 5)9.6340.85
eye test v10.121.18
eye trend v10.170.36
first sub minute (last 10)54.5061.10
form points (last 5)6.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.002.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.35
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.670.81
league points6.007.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank7.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2082.00
possession avg (last 5)43.4056.20
rest days7.008.79
scorer concentration0.50—
season ppg2.002.33
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.007.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.6018.00
skill v1-1.250.94
sot against avg (last 5)6.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.60
squad age28.1924.35
state index-0.280.93
sterile dominance v1-1.45-0.02
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.360.30
threat rate (last 5)0.340.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.00