← 2. Bundesliga 2019 · Sun, Aug 25, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Waschitzki
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 42% | 2.35 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 31% | 3.16 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.97 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ulrich Taffertshofer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 80' | ⚽ | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 82' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · VfL Osnabruck |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 205.00 | 693.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1486.19 | 1390.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.89 | 33.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 69.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 75.33 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 5.71 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| squad age | 25.23 | 25.46 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |